It's Gomg To Happen
posted by Common at
6:15 PM
Thursday, June 25, 2009
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- Name: Common
- Location: Memphis, TN., United States
If you like what you see tell somebody else. If you don't tell me. I'm a Christian, Black, Independent Conservative which I think will be reflected in my posts.
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Mayoral hopefuls consider the odds
Wharton in commanding lead right out of the gate
By Zack McMillin (Contact), Memphis Commercial Appeal
Sunday, June 28, 2009
When he saw people standing at intersections waving campaign signs on Friday morning, Dick Hackett remembered a similar scene in 1982, the last time a resigning Memphis mayor triggered a special election.
Hackett won that special election, and believes his campaign's early show of organizational force -- which included putting people with signs at intersections throughout Memphis -- played a role.
The signs on Friday belonged to supporters of Shelby County Mayor A C Wharton, and though Hackett preferred not to analyze specific candidates, he said the condensed timeframe of a special mayoral election greatly increases the usual advantages that accrue to candidates with strong finances, strong organizations and strong name recognition.
"If you have to buy name recognition, it takes money and you only have a short time span to raise money," Hackett said. "That makes it difficult for a less well-known public figure."
While several potential candidates for the city's special mayoral election spent Thursday and Friday "listening" and "considering" and "contemplating," Wharton's campaign operated as if the election was next week rather than in early October.
"You've got to start with intensity and keep up the intensity," Wharton said.
Wharton said he expects a crowded field of candidates, but so far only two others have declared -- former councilwoman Carol Chumney and current council chairman Myron Lowery, who is set to become interim mayor July 10 after Willie Herenton's resignation becomes official.
One potential candidate well aware of Wharton's head start is first-term Councilman Jim Strickland, but he believes he's found a message that will resonate with voters.
"Memphis needs dramatic change and we cannot change Memphis for the next generation with leaders of the last generation," Strickland said. "I think that message would be unique."
A Facebook group, titled "Draft Jim Strickland for City Mayor," had more than 850 members as of Saturday (and was adding about 25 per day).
Strickland said he would be meeting with supporters over the weekend to discuss whether he could raise the money needed to run a viable race.
Given the homogenous demographic profile of the supporters on the Facebook page and District 5's status as the most affluent council district, Strickland would certainly need money to reach voters in places where he is not well known.
"Two things about money: No. 1, it builds up your name recognition, and No. 2, it gets your message out," said Strickland, who raised more than $150,000 in his 2007 council race and believes he can pull together $200,000 for a mayoral run.
Another potential candidate confident he can raise money quickly is Jack Sammons, who served on the City Council for four terms before retiring at the end of 2007.
Sammons has spoken to Strickland, and Sammons implied Friday that various candidates who might attract the same pool of voters -- mostly white, more affluent, advocating spending cuts -- may need to come to some sort of understanding.
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Also considering is Councilman and former Shelby County Republican chairman Kemp Conrad -- yet another white male who believes he might have a shot at winning in a town where the electorate is dominated by large majorities of black and female voters.
"Those of us that are interested at some point have got to calculate who has the best opportunity to win," Sammons said. "Certainly Mayor Wharton would be considered the early favorite, but he's not unbeatable by any stretch of the imagination."
Chumney, another white candidate who defeated Strickland in a 2003 council race but lost badly to Wharton in the 2002 Democratic primary for Shelby County mayor, has always downplayed the role of money in her campaigns, and nobody believes she will drop out of the race.
She won nearly 35 percent of the vote in her 2007 challenge of Herenton (42 percent) despite a huge funding disadvantage and believes her supporters are loyal enough to give her a real shot at becoming Memphis' first female mayor.
"Elections are never about money. Elections are about people," said Chumney, who also served seven terms in the state legislature. "The people will not be fooled this time."
The most prominent potential black candidate who has thus far mentioned an interest in challenging Wharton and Lowery is attorney Charles Carpenter, who successfully guided Herenton's mayoral campaigns.
Rhodes College professor Marcus Pohlmann, like other political observers, says anyone with designs on beating Wharton must be prepared to run a near-flawless campaign, because polls have consistently shown Wharton's positives and favorables to be very high.
In 2002, Wharton won 80 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary rout of Chumney and 62 percent of the vote in the general election against George Flinn to become the county's first black mayor. In 2006, Wharton won 75.6 percent of the vote.
"So he starts with that kind of electoral base and does seem to have qualities that make him attractive across various segments of the area," Pohlmann said.
Wharton said he expects attacks -- Chumney is already making sure people know his many close associations with Herenton and what she calls his lack of accomplishment as county mayor.
That early visibility, he said, is just a small sample of what's to come. The Wharton campaign also plans a robust "cyber campaign" that will utilize online networking tools modeled after the Obama campaign's approach.
To execute it, Wharton has attracted several of the key members of the local Obama effort.
Wharton is sending a message not unlike one the Grizzlies hope their new 7-foot-3 center will send to opponents -- if you are going to come at him, you better come strong.
"You've got to work like you're losing, and I'm going to do that whether it is two people or eight people or whatever," Wharton said. "I'll take it however they bring it to me."
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